Vehicle Upgrade Recommendation — 2026-07-14 (rev. 3, top-picks reframe)¶

From the 2024 Kia Sportage PHEV to a 3-row family hauler. All money math in tco-model.md and keep-vs-swap-2026-07-14.md; per-candidate detail in ../candidates/.

Rev. 3 note (2026-07-14): Peter's clarified framing supersedes the rev. 2 leaderboard:

1. Sienna and Telluride are the top 1 and 2 contenders — the two practical picks. Everything else on the board is a different question, not a lower rank.
2. Everything else is "thinking outside the box" — grouped by why (cool factor, more comfort, savings), not ranked against the top two.
3. L2 charger is confirmed installed at Ladybug. The EV9 / Ioniq 9 / R1S SEA→Oroville stories lose their L2-install caveat — the pattern works day one, no upfront cost.

The rev. 2 fit-score exercise ("local electric" as a 30-point axis) still lives in the appendix for reference. It's not what picks the car anymore.

1. Executive summary¶

Top 1 — 2026 Toyota Sienna Hybrid AWD Platinum · ~$66,400 OTD (~$63,700 with the Sportage trade) · $351/mo modeled. Sliding doors, 33.5 cu ft behind row 3 (crushes every SUV here), 33 real-world MPG, cheapest to own on any horizon. TSS 2.0 lane-keep is the known compromise; everything else is upside.

Top 2 — 2027 Kia Telluride Hybrid SX-Prestige AWD · ~$63,000 OTD (~$60,400 with trade) · $435/mo modeled. HDA2, wireless AA/CP standard, vented seats both rows, mainstream money, the Kia dealer network Peter already uses, 10 yr/100K powertrain warranty. The best all-around no-plug hybrid for this family.

Buy one of these two. Test-drive both back-to-back; the tiebreaker is sliding doors vs. HDA2 — a lifestyle question, not a spreadsheet question.

Everything else on the board is a way to spend more (for cool factor, for luxury, for an EV daily driver) or a way to spend less (used). Those live in the "outside the box" sections below, grouped by intent so you can pick a bucket first and a car second — not so you can rank one against the Sienna.

2. Current Sportage disposition — unchanged¶

Full record: ../current-2024-kia-sportage/vehicle-record.md. Trade ~$25,000 / private ~$29,500; trade it in (WA tax offset ~$2,650 closes most of the private-party gap); don't fix cosmetics beyond a touch-up pen. Kia's $1,000 PHEV/EV conquest cash stacks on the Sportage trade at any Kia store, which matters for the Telluride, the EV9, and the used-Telluride path in §5.

3. Top picks — practical¶

1. Toyota Sienna Hybrid AWD — Platinum¶

$40,120–$57,510 + $1,495 dest. Target Platinum AWD $59,005 all-in. Est. Seattle OTD $66,400 (no trade) / $63,710 with the Sportage trade. $351/mo modeled — cheapest option in the entire board.

35 MPG EPA AWD / 33 real world · 3,500 lb tow (fine — "table stakes is all Peter needs") · 6.3" clearance (weakest here; the Ladybug road caveat) · 7 or 8 seats · 33.5 cu ft behind row 3 — the way-back that actually swallows a double stroller with Lupin still in the car · 5-yr depreciation 38% (best-in-set resale) · CR reliability below average on body hardware/electronics, warranty is 3/36 basic + 5/60 powertrain + 10/150 hybrid battery.

The whole case: sliding doors are a lifestyle multiplier with a toddler and a baby, the way-back is enormous, and it costs $84/month less to run than the Telluride and $580/month less than the EV9 on the wealth-change basis (§7). The known tradeoffs — TSS 2.0 lane-keep (which Peter has said he actively dislikes), 6.3" clearance for the cabin road, no plug — are all real, and none of them change the fact that this is the vehicle that fits how the family actually moves through a week.

2. Kia Telluride Hybrid — SX-Prestige AWD¶

$40,735 gas LX to $57,590 Hybrid X-Line SX-Prestige. Target Hybrid SX-Prestige AWD ~$56K + dest. Est. Seattle OTD $63,000 (no trade) / $60,400 with the Sportage trade + Kia loyalty. $435/mo modeled.

31 MPG EPA AWD hybrid / ~29–31 real · 4,500 lb tow · ~8" clearance (X-Pro trim: 9.1") · 7 or 8 seats · 21.3 cu ft behind row 3 · HDA2, wireless AA/CP standard, vented seats both rows, heated wheel · 5-yr depreciation ~50% est (1st-gen Telluride was 47–51%) · Warranty 5/60 basic, 10/100 powertrain.

The whole case: it doesn't do any one thing better than the Sienna (except drive dynamics and driver-assist), but it does no one thing badly. HDA2 is the argument — Peter has said the Sienna's assist stack is a dealbreaker on I-5. If that's true after a real test drive on I-5, the $84/month premium is buying a driver-assist system Peter actually uses. That's the honest tiebreaker.

Unproven-powertrain risk (2027 hybrid is all-new — no reliability track record) is the one asterisk. Kia's 10/100 warranty is the hedge.

4. Outside the box — cool factor / dream¶

For if the top two feel like an appliance. Not for their spreadsheets.

Rivian R1S Dual Large — ~$84K, direct sale¶

329 mi EPA (Large pack), 9.5–14.7" air-adjustable clearance (best on the board — makes the Ladybug road a non-event), 7,700 lb tow, quad-motor variants stupid-fast. The Wenatchee-stop SEA→Oroville pattern works with the Large pack; L2 at cabin (already installed) handles the return. Two things that haven't changed and probably won't: no Android Auto or CarPlay, ever (MacRumors, May 2026), and it's a direct-sale company still finding its service footing while every other Kia/Toyota/Hyundai/Lexus in Peter's life runs through mainstream dealers. Fable's take: this is the "cool factor" answer in this bucket; the "second car for a different household" argument still stands. Not a swap for the primary family hauler.

Used 2024 Volvo XC90 Recharge (T8) — ~$51K, CPO¶

The salvage-price version of the dream. Someone else ate the $30K new-to-used haircut. 32 mi EV range on the T8 covers the daily loop; on the road it's just a car with a gas tank. 8.4–9.9" air clearance for Ladybug. 10.6 cu ft behind row 3 is the dealbreaker — family + Lupin + gear still doesn't pack with the way-back up. Test one once; if it doesn't grin, question answers itself. CPO/extended warranty is non-negotiable given T8 repair history.

5. Outside the box — savings / value¶

Get most of the picture for less by going used or moving down-trim. Each of these buys back real money without changing the daily.

Used 2024 Toyota Sienna Hybrid — target ~$44–48K CPO¶

Same driving experience as the top pick, minus one model year, minus ~$18–22K. The Sienna's low depreciation (38% at 5 yrs) means 1-year-old inventory is scarce and holds price — but the used Sienna Platinum still lands ~$100/mo cheaper than a new one on the wealth-change basis. If the new-Sienna test drive says yes but the OTD says ouch, this is the path.

Used 2024 Kia Telluride Hybrid — target ~$42–46K CPO¶

Same story on the Kia side. 2024 was the second-gen refresh year; well-optioned examples are showing up as lease returns. Watch trims — SX-Prestige w/ HDA2 is the target; anything below loses the driver assist that's the whole reason to pick Telluride over Sienna.

Mazda CX-90 PHEV — new base Preferred $50,695 or used ~$40K¶

The value plug-in: 26 mi EV, 56 MPGe, 25–26 MPG depleted, 8" clearance, standard AWD. Keeps the nightly-charging habit in a 3-row for the cheapest OTD in the board. Held back by the least refined gas↔EV handoff in the segment, lane-centering well below HDA2, and CR's "least reliable SUVs" list in year one (improving via software). Get the plug-in benefit at Sienna money.

Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid MAX — Limited AWD ~$57K¶

Best-resale non-plug hybrid (30% at 5 yrs — best of any candidate here), TSS 3.0, biggest mainstream third row (33.5" legroom beats the Telluride), 5,000 lb tow, CR much-better-than-average. The MAX drops from 31 MPG (regular hybrid) to ~23 real-world, which is the argument for the regular Grand Highlander Hybrid if fuel matters more than acceleration. Real value pick if the Kia dealer play doesn't come through.

Hyundai Palisade Hybrid — Calligraphy AWD ~$60,800 OTD¶

Same 329-hp powertrain as the Telluride Hybrid, $3K cheaper as-specced. HDA2, luxe cabin, 7.4" clearance (XRT Pro: 8.4"). Get OTD quotes on both the same weekend; a $3K delta makes this the value winner of the two.

6. Outside the box — more comfort / luxury¶

If the top two check every box except "delight in the cabin." All of these move the monthly meaningfully up.

Lexus TX 550h+ PHEV — Luxury ~$84,300 OTD¶

33 mi EV range covers the whole daily loop off a nightly charge — the exact pattern Peter already lives with the Sportage — and on the Oroville run it's just a car with a gas tank. Zero charging logistics on US-97. CR-excellent reliability, 8.0" clearance, 5,000 lb tow, wireless AA/CP, 6 seats only. ~$20K premium over the Telluride to never think about a plug outside the garage.

Kia EV9 Wind AWD — ~$67K Seattle OTD after ~$6K in incentives¶

Every school run, Costco trip, Goldfish drop-off on electricity at ~4¢/mi vs ~15¢/mi in a hybrid. Kia stack Peter already trusts — HDA2, wireless AA/CP standard, 10 yr/100K powertrain and battery warranty. 280 mi EPA (Wind AWD), 20.2 cu ft behind row 3, 5,000 lb tow, 7.8" clearance. SEA→Oroville plan is confirmed workable — L2 already at Ladybug, one ~20-min DCFC stop at Wenatchee each way, no upfront install cost, no caveat. Real risks that remain: ICCU failure history (warranty-covered, but a bad day near Oroville — this is the reason it's here and not up top), and ~52% 5-yr EV depreciation. Modeled ~$955–975/mo on the wealth-change basis — the biggest premium over "keep the Sportage" of anything on the board.

Hyundai Ioniq 9 SEL AWD — ~$72K¶

EV9's platform twin. Beats it on the numbers that aren't loyalty: ~40 mi more range (320 vs 280 AWD — real margin on the Wenatchee→cabin leg), more cargo behind row 3 (21.9 vs 20.2), quieter cabin. Loses on the one that's literally about the Ladybug driveway: 6.9" clearance, lowest of any EV here. Drive both the same day; if extra range reads as worth more than 0.9" of clearance, this wins.

Genesis GV80 — 2.5T AWD ~$60K¶

Included on Peter's ask despite being gas-only (no 3-row plug variant exists — the Electrified GV70 is 2-row only). Lovely interior, HDA2-family assist, 4/50 basic + 10/100 powertrain. 11.6 cu ft behind row 3 is a duffel-bag way-back that doesn't hold a double-stroller Saturday — that's what keeps it here rather than in top picks. Cross-shop only; buy for the cabin, not the utility.

7. Ruled out / reference-only¶

Kept in the record so the reasoning is legible; not in the running.

• Toyota Sequoia i-FORCE MAX — tow-strength was its case; tow doesn't score. 20 MPG, no plug, 11.5 cu ft behind row 3.
• Lexus GX 550 — body-on-frame, no electric option, 17 MPG premium.
• Lincoln Navigator — 17 MPG, no electrified option, 60% depreciation, 48-inch screen isn't worth a $57K burn.
• BMW X7 · Mercedes GLS · Audi Q7 (gas) — no 3-row PHEV path (BMW's X5 50e and Mercedes' GLE 450e are 2-row; a GLS PHEV doesn't exist in the US). Gas ~20 MPG, ~58% depreciation.
• Cadillac Escalade IQ — $129,795–150,595 (two EV9s). No CarPlay/Android Auto.
• Volvo EX90 — the XC90 dream electrified inherits the same 10.9 cu ft way-back, plus first-gen software history that Volvo says is "fixed" but owner reviews haven't caught up. If Volvo is the itch, buy it used as an XC90 Recharge (§4) — that path exists at a defensible price; this one doesn't yet.
• Subaru Ascent — no hybrid, no plug, no path to local-electric in the Subaru lineup.

8. The Oroville question — L2 confirmed at cabin¶

The route: Seattle → Wenatchee ≈ 148 mi; Wenatchee → Ladybug cabin (Oroville) ≈ 105 mi via US-97.

For hybrids (top picks Sienna and Telluride): trivial. One tank each way, ~29–33 real MPG, no logistics.

For plug-in hybrids (TX 550h+, CX-90 PHEV, XC90 Recharge): trivial. Nightly L2 at Ladybug covers local; gas covers the road trip.

For EVs (EV9, Ioniq 9, R1S Large): the pattern that works, unchanged from rev. 2 but with the L2 caveat removed:

1. Leave Seattle at 100%. DCFC stop at Wenatchee/Leavenworth (~148 mi in, arriving ~35–45%): 10→80% is ~24 min on the EV9/Ioniq 9's 800V architecture. A 20-min top-up to ~85–90% is enough.
2. Run the 105 mi to the cabin; arrive with ~35–50% even in winter.
3. L2 at Ladybug — already installed — recharges overnight. Leave full.
4. One ~15-min Wenatchee splash on the way home.

Cost of the pattern: ~20–25 min each way, 4x/yr. No upfront install cost. Portland and Spokane routes are trivially covered (I-5, I-90 corridors).

Residual tail risk on the EV path: winter margin on step 2 is real but adequate (105-mi leg vs ~200-mi degraded range); the bigger risk is an ICCU failure far from a service center. The Ioniq 9 carries the same platform risk; the TX 550h+ PHEV is the zero-risk alternative in the comfort bucket if that risk reads as too much.

9. Money — the part that didn't change¶

From keep-vs-swap-2026-07-14.md (wealth-change basis): keeping the Sportage costs ~$630/mo; swapping to the Sienna ~$875/mo (+$245); swapping to the Telluride ~$960/mo (+$330); swapping to the EV9 models out to ~$955–975/mo (+$325–345). On the tco-model.md credit basis used for candidate ranking: Sienna $351/mo · Telluride $435/mo · EV9 $445/mo.

Upgrading still costs $245–345/mo more than keeping the Sportage. That's the price of the third row. The Sienna is the least-expensive way to buy it; the Telluride is the least-expensive way to buy it and get HDA2; everything in the outside-the-box sections costs more than either.

10. Next steps¶

1. Test-drive weekend, top picks first: Sienna Platinum AWD at Toyota of Seattle (SoDo) — bring both car seats, drive the sliding doors on a Costco run, sit in TSS 2.0 on I-5 for 20 minutes and be honest about how it feels. Same day: Telluride Hybrid SX-Prestige at Chuck Olson Kia (Shoreline) — same route, HDA2 back-to-back.
2. Decide inside the top two unless something breaks. The whole framing is: pick between these first; only pop out to "outside the box" if the answer is "neither."
3. If neither: schedule from the outside-the-box list — Lexus TX 550h+ for the luxury path, EV9 for the EV daily driver, XC90 Recharge (used, CPO) for the dream. Grand Highlander Hybrid + Palisade Hybrid on a value-shopping day if the top picks felt right but the money didn't.
4. Confirm before signing: Progressive quote on the target VIN, Sportage loan payoff, and stackable incentives (Kia loyalty + PHEV conquest for the Telluride/EV9; end-of-month for quota leverage; 24K-mi Sportage service on 2026-08-26 doubles as the trade-in appraisal moment).

Appendix — rev. 2 fit-score board (reference)¶

The 100-point scoring from rev. 2 is preserved here for the record. It doesn't pick the car under the rev. 3 framing (Sienna scored 58 and is the top pick; the score axes were built for "local electric" as a 30-point weight, which was one criteria run and is not the whole picture).

Changes from rev. 2: EV9, Ioniq 9, and R1S all gain 4 pts on the Oroville axis (6→10, 6→10, 5→9) with the L2-at-Ladybug caveat removed. Volvo EX90 dropped from the leaderboard to the ruled-out list. Subaru Ascent dropped as well (no electrified path). The framing question this table can't answer: "Is 90 fit worth an extra $600/month wealth-change and an ICCU failure risk over a 58-fit Sienna that fits the family perfectly?" That's what §1 and §10 are for.