60-Month TCO Model — Supporting Math¶

Companion to upgrade-recommendation-2026-07-14.md. Compiled 2026-07-14.

Shared assumptions¶

Formula: Net 60-mo cost = OTD − Sportage proceeds − candidate resale @60 mo + fuel/energy + insurance + maintenance. Monthly = ÷60.

Scenario A — Buy new now, trade Sportage in¶

A1. 2027 Kia Telluride Hybrid SX-Prestige AWD (TOP PICK)¶

• Price incl. dest: $56,000 (est. within Edmunds' $46,490–57,590 hybrid range — get real OTD quotes)
• Tax: (56,000 − 25,000) × 10.6% = 3,286; + fees 1,100 → OTD $60,386; net cash after trade $35,386
• Resale @60 mo (40K mi): 50% retention (1st-gen Telluride precedent, CarEdge/iSeeCars) = $28,000
• Fuel: 40,000 ÷ 29 real MPG × $4.40 = $6,069
• Insurance: $2,050 × 5 = $10,250 | Maintenance/tires: $2,400
• Net 60-mo: $26,105 → $435/mo

A2. 2026 Toyota Sienna Platinum AWD (the trim with vented seats + heated wheel)¶

• Price incl. dest: $59,005 (MSRP — Siennas don't discount)
• Tax: (59,005 − 25,000) × 10.6% = 3,605; + 1,100 → OTD $63,710; net cash $38,710
• Resale @60 mo: 60% retention (CarEdge 62.4%, trimmed) = $35,400
• Fuel: 40,000 ÷ 33 real × $4.40 = $5,333
• Insurance: $2,000 × 5 = $10,000 | Maintenance: $2,400
• Net 60-mo: $21,043 → $351/mo ← cheapest of everything

A3. 2026 Volvo XC90 T8 Ultra (new — the dream at sticker)¶

• Price incl. dest: $84,595; tax (84,595 − 25,000) × 10.6% = 6,317; + 1,100 → OTD $92,012; net cash $67,012
• Resale @60 mo: 44% retention (iSeeCars 54–57% depreciation, split) = $37,222
• Energy: ~65% electric (32-mi EV range covers school/Costco pattern): 26,000 mi ÷ 2.6 mi/kWh × $0.13 = $1,300; gas 14,000 ÷ 27 × $4.40 = $2,283 → $3,583
• Insurance: $2,600 × 5 = $13,000 | Maintenance: $3,600 (2-yr free, then premium rates)
• Net 60-mo: $49,973 → $833/mo ← 1.9x the Telluride for the same job

Scenario B — Buy 1–2-yr used: 2024 XC90 Recharge Ultimate, ~$51,000¶

(The depreciation-absorbed version of the dream. Avg 2024 Recharge listing ~$50.8K per Cars.com.) - Tax: (51,000 − 25,000) × 10.6% = 2,756; + 1,100 → OTD $54,856; net cash $29,856 - Resale @60 mo (7.5-yr-old car, ~70K mi): ~38% of purchase = $19,500 - Energy: $3,583 (same PHEV pattern) | Insurance: $2,400 × 5 = $12,000 | Maintenance/repair: $5,000 (out of basic warranty; ERAD/charging-fault risk — budget real repairs; CPO extended warranty strongly advised) - Net 60-mo: $30,939 → $516/mo - Caveats: pre-refresh body/infotainment, wired CarPlay, no Android Auto, unknown prior-owner battery care.

Scenario C — Wait until end of 2026¶

• Sportage trade drops ~$2,500 (to ~$22,500 at 28K mi, mid-2027 model-year pressure)
• Plausible transaction gain from waiting: ~$1,500 (new-gen Telluride discounts emerging, better Palisade hybrid supply)
• Rerun A1 with both: tax (54,500 − 22,500) × 10.6% = 3,392; OTD 58,992; net cash $36,492 — $1,106 WORSE than buying now
• Plus: 12 more months hauling two kids + Lupin in a compact SUV; no confirmed MY2027 improvements to wait for (Sienna TSS upgrade unannounced; Carnival AWD unannounced)
• Verdict: waiting costs ~$1,100 and a year. Buy now.

Scenario D — Touch-up + private-party sale + buy Telluride¶

• Sell private as-is + $150 touch-up pen: net ~$29,350. (Full $1,200 panel respray nets LESS: $30,500 − $1,200 = $29,300 — repairs don't pay.)
• Buy Telluride with no trade: tax on full $56,000 = 5,936; OTD $63,036; net cash $33,686
• Saves $1,700 vs Scenario A1 → $407/mo
• Cost: listing, strangers, test drives, title transfer, timing gap between sale and purchase — with a 3-yo and a 1-yo. $28/mo of savings. Peter's call; not recommended.

Summary¶

Sensitivity: every $1,000 of purchase-price negotiation ≈ $18/mo. If insurance baseline is actually $2,888/yr (6-mo term reading), add ~$90/mo to every scenario equally — rankings unchanged.